If DEN visited MEM today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.9 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

4.7

118.9

Offensive Rating

117.2

115.1

Defensive Rating

112.6

100.7

Pace

103.7

DEN (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

DEN wins

2026-04-08 DEN 119 @ MEM 136 MEM W

2026-03-18 DEN 118 @ MEM 125 MEM W

2026-02-11 DEN 116 @ MEM 122 MEM W

2025-11-24 DEN 125 @ MEM 115 DEN W

2025-04-11 DEN 109 @ MEM 117 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score