If DEN visited LAC today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.1 points for LAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

4.9

118.9

Offensive Rating

114.3

115.1

Defensive Rating

109.4

100.7

Pace

98.2

DEN (Away) LAC (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

LAC 42-40 W1 Avg margin last 5: +2.0

W GSW

L POR

L OKC

W DAL

W SAC

Head-to-Head History

LAC wins

DEN wins

2026-02-19 DEN 114 @ LAC 115 LAC W

2026-01-30 DEN 109 @ LAC 122 LAC W

2025-11-12 DEN 130 @ LAC 116 DEN W

2025-05-03 DEN 101 @ LAC 120 LAC W

2025-05-01 DEN 105 @ LAC 111 LAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score