If DEN visited DAL today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.1 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-1.3

118.9

Offensive Rating

113.7

115.1

Defensive Rating

115.0

100.7

Pace

100.2

DEN (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

DEN wins

2026-03-25 DEN 135 @ DAL 142 DAL W

2026-01-14 DEN 118 @ DAL 109 DEN W

2025-12-23 DEN 130 @ DAL 131 DAL W

2025-12-01 DEN 131 @ DAL 121 DEN W

2025-01-14 DEN 118 @ DAL 99 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score