If DEN visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.4 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

9.2

118.9

Offensive Rating

121.0

115.1

Defensive Rating

111.8

100.7

Pace

100.3

DEN (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

DEN wins

2026-02-09 DEN 119 @ CLE 117 DEN W

2026-01-02 DEN 108 @ CLE 113 CLE W

2024-12-27 DEN 149 @ CLE 135 DEN W

2024-12-05 DEN 114 @ CLE 126 CLE W

2024-03-31 DEN 101 @ CLE 130 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score