If DEN visited CHI today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.4 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-1.6

118.9

Offensive Rating

113.2

115.1

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.7

Pace

103.6

DEN (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

DEN wins

2026-02-07 DEN 136 @ CHI 120 DEN W

2025-11-17 DEN 130 @ CHI 127 DEN W

2025-03-24 DEN 129 @ CHI 119 DEN W

2025-01-27 DEN 121 @ CHI 129 CHI W

2023-12-12 DEN 114 @ CHI 106 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score