If DEN visited BKN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.1 points for BKN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-7.3

118.9

Offensive Rating

108.1

115.1

Defensive Rating

115.4

100.7

Pace

96.7

DEN (Away) BKN (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

BKN wins

DEN wins

2026-01-29 DEN 103 @ BKN 107 BKN W

2026-01-04 DEN 115 @ BKN 127 BKN W

2025-01-10 DEN 105 @ BKN 124 BKN W

2024-10-29 DEN 144 @ BKN 139 DEN W

2023-12-22 DEN 122 @ BKN 117 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score