If DEN visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.6 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

9.4

118.9

Offensive Rating

119.5

115.1

Defensive Rating

110.1

100.7

Pace

96.6

DEN (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

DEN wins

2026-02-25 DEN 84 @ BOS 103 BOS W

2026-01-07 DEN 114 @ BOS 110 DEN W

2025-03-02 DEN 103 @ BOS 110 BOS W

2025-01-07 DEN 118 @ BOS 106 DEN W

2024-03-07 DEN 109 @ BOS 115 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score