If DEN visited ATL today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.9 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-1.1

118.9

Offensive Rating

113.7

115.1

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.7

Pace

103.4

DEN (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

DEN wins

2026-01-09 DEN 110 @ ATL 87 DEN W

2025-12-05 DEN 134 @ ATL 133 DEN W

2025-01-01 DEN 120 @ ATL 139 ATL W

2024-12-08 DEN 141 @ ATL 111 DEN W

2024-04-06 DEN 110 @ ATL 142 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score