If DAL visited WAS today, our model would lean Dallas Mavericks with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.9 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-12.2

113.7

Offensive Rating

105.8

115.0

Defensive Rating

118.0

100.2

Pace

101.8

DAL (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

DAL wins

2025-11-08 DAL 111 @ WAS 105 DAL W

2025-10-24 DAL 117 @ WAS 107 DAL W

2025-01-27 DAL 108 @ WAS 130 WAS W

2024-12-05 DAL 137 @ WAS 101 DAL W

2024-02-12 DAL 104 @ WAS 112 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score