If DAL visited UTA today, our model would lean Utah Jazz with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.9 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-9.2

113.7

Offensive Rating

110.2

115.0

Defensive Rating

119.4

100.2

Pace

100.8

DAL (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

DAL wins

2026-01-17 DAL 120 @ UTA 138 UTA W

2026-01-15 DAL 122 @ UTA 144 UTA W

2026-01-08 DAL 114 @ UTA 116 UTA W

2025-12-15 DAL 133 @ UTA 140 UTA W

2024-11-30 DAL 106 @ UTA 94 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score