If DAL visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.8 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-4.1

113.7

Offensive Rating

109.6

115.0

Defensive Rating

113.6

100.2

Pace

100.6

DAL (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

DAL wins

2026-03-08 DAL 92 @ TOR 122 TOR W

2025-10-26 DAL 129 @ TOR 139 TOR W

2025-04-11 DAL 102 @ TOR 124 TOR W

2024-12-07 DAL 125 @ TOR 118 DAL W

2024-02-28 DAL 136 @ TOR 125 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score