If DAL visited SAC today, our model would lean Sacramento Kings with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.9 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

0.6

113.7

Offensive Rating

115.9

115.0

Defensive Rating

115.3

100.2

Pace

98.9

DAL (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

DAL wins

2026-02-26 DAL 130 @ SAC 121 DAL W

2026-01-06 DAL 100 @ SAC 98 DAL W

2025-12-27 DAL 107 @ SAC 113 SAC W

2025-03-03 DAL 122 @ SAC 98 DAL W

2025-02-10 DAL 129 @ SAC 128 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score