If DAL visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.4 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-2.7

113.7

Offensive Rating

111.0

115.0

Defensive Rating

113.7

100.2

Pace

99.5

DAL (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

DAL wins

2026-03-27 DAL 100 @ POR 93 DAL W

2025-12-29 DAL 122 @ POR 125 POR W

2025-11-16 DAL 133 @ POR 138 POR W

2025-01-09 DAL 111 @ POR 117 POR W

2024-12-28 DAL 122 @ POR 126 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score