If DAL visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 80.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.1 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-0.2

113.7

Offensive Rating

108.9

115.0

Defensive Rating

109.1

100.2

Pace

96.5

DAL (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

DAL wins

2026-04-03 DAL 138 @ ORL 127 DAL W

2026-03-05 DAL 114 @ ORL 115 ORL W

2025-03-27 DAL 101 @ ORL 92 DAL W

2024-11-03 DAL 85 @ ORL 108 ORL W

2024-01-29 DAL 129 @ ORL 131 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 80.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score