If DAL visited NOP today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.1 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-9.4

113.7

Offensive Rating

109.7

115.0

Defensive Rating

119.1

100.2

Pace

99.8

DAL (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

DAL wins

2026-03-16 DAL 111 @ NOP 129 NOP W

2025-12-22 DAL 113 @ NOP 119 NOP W

2025-11-21 DAL 115 @ NOP 118 NOP W

2025-11-05 DAL 101 @ NOP 99 DAL W

2025-02-21 DAL 103 @ NOP 111 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score