If DAL visited MIN today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 80.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.3 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

5.0

113.7

Offensive Rating

115.7

115.0

Defensive Rating

110.8

100.2

Pace

98.0

DAL (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

DAL wins

2026-03-30 DAL 124 @ MIN 94 DAL W

2026-02-20 DAL 111 @ MIN 122 MIN W

2026-01-28 DAL 118 @ MIN 105 DAL W

2025-11-17 DAL 96 @ MIN 120 MIN W

2025-01-22 DAL 115 @ MIN 114 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 80.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score