If DAL visited IND today, our model would lean Indiana Pacers with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.4 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

2.1

113.7

Offensive Rating

115.4

115.0

Defensive Rating

113.3

100.2

Pace

100.8

DAL (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

DAL wins

2026-02-22 DAL 134 @ IND 130 DAL W

2025-10-29 DAL 105 @ IND 107 IND W

2025-03-19 DAL 131 @ IND 135 IND W

2024-11-04 DAL 134 @ IND 127 DAL W

2024-03-05 DAL 137 @ IND 120 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score