If DAL visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.1 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

3.8

113.7

Offensive Rating

118.9

115.0

Defensive Rating

115.1

100.2

Pace

100.7

DAL (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

DAL wins

2026-03-25 DAL 135 @ DEN 142 DEN W

2026-01-14 DAL 118 @ DEN 109 DAL W

2025-12-23 DAL 130 @ DEN 131 DEN W

2025-12-01 DAL 131 @ DEN 121 DAL W

2025-01-14 DAL 118 @ DEN 99 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score