If DAL visited CHI today, our model would lean Chicago Bulls with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.3 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-1.6

113.7

Offensive Rating

113.2

115.0

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.2

Pace

103.6

DAL (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

DAL wins

2026-04-12 DAL 128 @ CHI 149 CHI W

2026-01-10 DAL 107 @ CHI 125 CHI W

2025-03-29 DAL 120 @ CHI 119 DAL W

2024-11-06 DAL 99 @ CHI 119 CHI W

2024-03-11 DAL 127 @ CHI 92 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score