If DAL visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.8 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-9.1

113.7

Offensive Rating

106.7

115.0

Defensive Rating

115.7

100.2

Pace

98.2

DAL (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

DAL wins

2026-03-03 DAL 90 @ CHA 117 CHA W

2026-01-29 DAL 123 @ CHA 121 DAL W

2025-02-27 DAL 96 @ CHA 103 CHA W

2025-01-20 DAL 105 @ CHA 110 CHA W

2024-04-09 DAL 130 @ CHA 104 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score