If DAL visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.7 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

9.4

113.7

Offensive Rating

119.5

115.0

Defensive Rating

110.1

100.2

Pace

96.6

DAL (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

DAL wins

2026-03-06 DAL 100 @ BOS 120 BOS W

2026-02-03 DAL 110 @ BOS 100 DAL W

2025-02-06 DAL 127 @ BOS 120 DAL W

2025-01-25 DAL 122 @ BOS 107 DAL W

2024-06-17 DAL 88 @ BOS 106 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score