If CLE visited WAS today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -21.4 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-12.2

121.0

Offensive Rating

105.8

111.8

Defensive Rating

118.0

100.3

Pace

101.8

CLE (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

CLE wins

2026-04-12 CLE 117 @ WAS 130 WAS W

2026-02-11 CLE 113 @ WAS 138 WAS W

2025-12-12 CLE 130 @ WAS 126 CLE W

2025-11-07 CLE 148 @ WAS 115 CLE W

2025-02-07 CLE 134 @ WAS 124 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score