If CLE visited UTA today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -18.4 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-9.2

121.0

Offensive Rating

110.2

111.8

Defensive Rating

119.4

100.3

Pace

100.8

CLE (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

CLE wins

2026-03-30 CLE 122 @ UTA 113 CLE W

2026-01-12 CLE 123 @ UTA 112 CLE W

2025-03-23 CLE 120 @ UTA 91 CLE W

2024-12-23 CLE 113 @ UTA 124 UTA W

2024-04-02 CLE 129 @ UTA 113 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score