If CLE visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.0 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-2.8

121.0

Offensive Rating

113.5

111.8

Defensive Rating

116.3

100.3

Pace

100.1

CLE (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

CLE wins

2025-12-29 CLE 113 @ SAS 101 CLE W

2025-12-05 CLE 117 @ SAS 130 SAS W

2025-04-04 CLE 114 @ SAS 113 CLE W

2025-03-27 CLE 116 @ SAS 124 SAS W

2024-02-03 CLE 117 @ SAS 101 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score