If CLE visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.9 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-2.7

121.0

Offensive Rating

111.0

111.8

Defensive Rating

113.7

100.3

Pace

99.5

CLE (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

CLE wins

2026-02-01 CLE 130 @ POR 111 CLE W

2025-12-03 CLE 122 @ POR 110 CLE W

2025-03-25 CLE 122 @ POR 111 CLE W

2025-03-02 CLE 129 @ POR 133 POR W

2023-11-30 CLE 103 @ POR 95 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score