If CLE visited PHX today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.2 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-3.0

121.0

Offensive Rating

114.7

111.8

Defensive Rating

117.7

100.3

Pace

98.3

CLE (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

CLE wins

2026-01-30 CLE 113 @ PHX 126 PHX W

2025-12-31 CLE 113 @ PHX 129 PHX W

2025-03-21 CLE 112 @ PHX 123 PHX W

2025-01-20 CLE 92 @ PHX 118 PHX W

2024-04-03 CLE 101 @ PHX 122 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score