If CLE visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.4 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-0.2

121.0

Offensive Rating

108.9

111.8

Defensive Rating

109.1

100.3

Pace

96.5

CLE (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

CLE wins

2026-03-24 CLE 131 @ ORL 136 ORL W

2026-03-11 CLE 122 @ ORL 128 ORL W

2026-01-26 CLE 98 @ ORL 114 ORL W

2026-01-24 CLE 119 @ ORL 105 CLE W

2025-03-16 CLE 108 @ ORL 103 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score