If CLE visited NOP today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -18.6 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-9.4

121.0

Offensive Rating

109.7

111.8

Defensive Rating

119.1

100.3

Pace

99.8

CLE (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

CLE wins

2026-03-21 CLE 111 @ NOP 106 CLE W

2025-12-23 CLE 118 @ NOP 141 NOP W

2024-11-20 CLE 100 @ NOP 128 NOP W

2024-11-06 CLE 131 @ NOP 122 CLE W

2024-03-13 CLE 116 @ NOP 95 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score