If CLE visited MIN today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.2 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

5.0

121.0

Offensive Rating

115.7

111.8

Defensive Rating

110.8

100.3

Pace

98.0

CLE (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

CLE wins

2026-01-10 CLE 134 @ MIN 146 MIN W

2026-01-08 CLE 122 @ MIN 131 MIN W

2025-02-10 CLE 107 @ MIN 128 MIN W

2025-01-18 CLE 124 @ MIN 117 CLE W

2024-03-22 CLE 91 @ MIN 104 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score