If CLE visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.6 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

4.6

121.0

Offensive Rating

114.9

111.8

Defensive Rating

110.3

100.3

Pace

99.0

CLE (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

CLE wins

2025-12-27 CLE 100 @ HOU 117 HOU W

2025-11-19 CLE 114 @ HOU 104 CLE W

2025-01-25 CLE 135 @ HOU 131 CLE W

2025-01-22 CLE 108 @ HOU 109 HOU W

2024-03-16 CLE 103 @ HOU 117 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score