If CLE visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -18.3 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-9.1

121.0

Offensive Rating

106.7

111.8

Defensive Rating

115.7

100.3

Pace

98.2

CLE (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

CLE wins

2026-02-20 CLE 118 @ CHA 113 CLE W

2026-01-21 CLE 94 @ CHA 87 CLE W

2025-12-22 CLE 132 @ CHA 139 CHA W

2025-12-14 CLE 119 @ CHA 111 CLE W

2025-03-07 CLE 118 @ CHA 117 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score