If CLE visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.2 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

9.4

121.0

Offensive Rating

119.5

111.8

Defensive Rating

110.1

100.3

Pace

96.6

CLE (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

CLE wins

2026-03-08 CLE 109 @ BOS 98 CLE W

2025-11-30 CLE 117 @ BOS 115 CLE W

2025-10-29 CLE 105 @ BOS 125 BOS W

2025-02-28 CLE 123 @ BOS 116 CLE W

2025-02-04 CLE 112 @ BOS 105 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score