If CHI visited WAS today, our model would lean Chicago Bulls with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.6 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

-12.2

113.2

Offensive Rating

105.8

114.8

Defensive Rating

118.0

103.6

Pace

101.8

CHI (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

CHI wins

2026-04-09 CHI 119 @ WAS 108 CHI W

2026-04-07 CHI 129 @ WAS 98 CHI W

2025-11-22 CHI 120 @ WAS 121 WAS W

2025-04-11 CHI 89 @ WAS 119 WAS W

2025-01-10 CHI 105 @ WAS 138 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score