If CHI visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.1 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

-2.7

113.2

Offensive Rating

111.0

114.8

Defensive Rating

113.7

103.6

Pace

99.5

CHI (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

CHI wins

2026-02-26 CHI 121 @ POR 112 CHI W

2025-11-19 CHI 122 @ POR 121 CHI W

2025-04-04 CHI 113 @ POR 118 POR W

2025-01-19 CHI 102 @ POR 113 POR W

2024-03-18 CHI 107 @ POR 110 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score