If CHI visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.4 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

-3.0

113.2

Offensive Rating

114.7

114.8

Defensive Rating

117.7

103.6

Pace

98.3

CHI (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

CHI wins

2026-04-05 CHI 120 @ PHX 110 CHI W

2026-03-05 CHI 105 @ PHX 103 CHI W

2025-03-19 CHI 121 @ PHX 127 PHX W

2025-02-22 CHI 121 @ PHX 117 CHI W

2024-01-22 CHI 113 @ PHX 115 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score