If CHI visited NOP today, our model would lean New Orleans Pelicans with a 74.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.8 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

-9.4

113.2

Offensive Rating

109.7

114.8

Defensive Rating

119.1

103.6

Pace

99.8

CHI (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

CHI wins

2025-12-31 CHI 118 @ NOP 134 NOP W

2025-12-14 CHI 114 @ NOP 104 CHI W

2025-11-24 CHI 130 @ NOP 143 NOP W

2025-01-14 CHI 119 @ NOP 113 CHI W

2024-10-23 CHI 111 @ NOP 123 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score