If CHI visited MIL today, our model would lean Milwaukee Bucks with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.0 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

2.4

113.2

Offensive Rating

115.1

114.8

Defensive Rating

112.7

103.6

Pace

99.9

CHI (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

CHI wins

2026-03-01 CHI 97 @ MIL 120 MIL W

2026-02-03 CHI 115 @ MIL 131 MIL W

2025-12-27 CHI 112 @ MIL 103 CHI W

2025-11-07 CHI 110 @ MIL 126 MIL W

2024-12-28 CHI 111 @ MIL 116 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score