If CHI visited MEM today, our model would lean Chicago Bulls with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.3 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

4.7

113.2

Offensive Rating

117.2

114.8

Defensive Rating

112.6

103.6

Pace

103.7

CHI (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

CHI wins

2026-03-28 CHI 124 @ MEM 125 MEM W

2026-03-16 CHI 107 @ MEM 132 MEM W

2024-11-23 CHI 142 @ MEM 131 CHI W

2024-10-28 CHI 126 @ MEM 123 CHI W

2024-02-08 CHI 118 @ MEM 110 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score