If CHI visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.2 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

4.6

113.2

Offensive Rating

114.9

114.8

Defensive Rating

110.3

103.6

Pace

99.0

CHI (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

CHI wins

2026-03-23 CHI 124 @ HOU 132 HOU W

2026-01-13 CHI 113 @ HOU 119 HOU W

2025-03-15 CHI 114 @ HOU 117 HOU W

2024-11-17 CHI 143 @ HOU 107 CHI W

2024-03-21 CHI 117 @ HOU 127 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score