If CHI visited GSW today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 74.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.8 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

3.2

113.2

Offensive Rating

114.2

114.8

Defensive Rating

111.0

103.6

Pace

99.4

CHI (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

CHI wins

2026-03-10 CHI 130 @ GSW 124 CHI W

2025-12-07 CHI 123 @ GSW 91 CHI W

2025-02-08 CHI 132 @ GSW 111 CHI W

2025-01-23 CHI 106 @ GSW 131 GSW W

2024-03-07 CHI 125 @ GSW 122 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score