If CHI visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.4 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

3.8

113.2

Offensive Rating

118.9

114.8

Defensive Rating

115.1

103.6

Pace

100.7

CHI (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

CHI wins

2026-02-07 CHI 136 @ DEN 120 CHI W

2025-11-17 CHI 130 @ DEN 127 CHI W

2025-03-24 CHI 129 @ DEN 119 CHI W

2025-01-27 CHI 121 @ DEN 129 DEN W

2023-12-12 CHI 114 @ DEN 106 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score