If CHI visited DAL today, our model would lean Dallas Mavericks with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.3 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

-1.3

113.2

Offensive Rating

113.7

114.8

Defensive Rating

115.0

103.6

Pace

100.2

CHI (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

CHI wins

2026-04-12 CHI 128 @ DAL 149 DAL W

2026-01-10 CHI 107 @ DAL 125 DAL W

2025-03-29 CHI 120 @ DAL 119 CHI W

2024-11-06 CHI 99 @ DAL 119 DAL W

2024-03-11 CHI 127 @ DAL 92 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score