If CHI visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.0 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

9.4

113.2

Offensive Rating

119.5

114.8

Defensive Rating

110.1

103.6

Pace

96.6

CHI (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

CHI wins

2026-02-11 CHI 105 @ BOS 124 BOS W

2026-01-24 CHI 111 @ BOS 114 BOS W

2026-01-05 CHI 101 @ BOS 115 BOS W

2025-01-29 CHI 100 @ BOS 122 BOS W

2024-12-21 CHI 123 @ BOS 98 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score