If CHA visited UTA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.1 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

-9.2

106.7

Offensive Rating

110.2

115.7

Defensive Rating

119.4

98.2

Pace

100.8

CHA (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

CHA wins

2026-01-10 CHA 150 @ UTA 95 CHA W

2025-11-02 CHA 103 @ UTA 126 UTA W

2025-03-31 CHA 106 @ UTA 110 UTA W

2025-01-15 CHA 117 @ UTA 112 CHA W

2024-02-22 CHA 115 @ UTA 107 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score