If CHA visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.0 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

-4.1

106.7

Offensive Rating

109.6

115.7

Defensive Rating

113.6

98.2

Pace

100.6

CHA (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

CHA wins

2026-01-07 CHA 97 @ TOR 96 CHA W

2025-12-05 CHA 111 @ TOR 86 CHA W

2025-11-29 CHA 111 @ TOR 118 TOR W

2025-11-17 CHA 108 @ TOR 110 TOR W

2025-04-09 CHA 96 @ TOR 126 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score