If CHA visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 74.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.3 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

-2.8

106.7

Offensive Rating

113.5

115.7

Defensive Rating

116.3

98.2

Pace

100.1

CHA (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

SAS 74-26 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.6

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

L OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

CHA wins

2026-03-14 CHA 102 @ SAS 115 SAS W

2026-01-31 CHA 106 @ SAS 111 SAS W

2025-03-14 CHA 145 @ SAS 134 CHA W

2025-02-07 CHA 116 @ SAS 117 SAS W

2024-01-19 CHA 120 @ SAS 124 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7145 tracked

75.0%

High Conf.

>65% picks

82.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.0% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score