If CHA visited POR today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.4 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

-2.7

106.7

Offensive Rating

111.0

115.7

Defensive Rating

113.7

98.2

Pace

99.5

CHA (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

CHA wins

2026-03-10 CHA 103 @ POR 101 CHA W

2026-02-28 CHA 93 @ POR 109 POR W

2025-02-22 CHA 88 @ POR 141 POR W

2025-01-24 CHA 102 @ POR 97 CHA W

2024-04-03 CHA 89 @ POR 86 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score