If CHA visited PHX today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.1 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

-3.0

106.7

Offensive Rating

114.7

115.7

Defensive Rating

117.7

98.2

Pace

98.3

CHA (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

CHA wins

2026-04-02 CHA 107 @ PHX 127 PHX W

2026-03-08 CHA 99 @ PHX 111 PHX W

2025-01-12 CHA 113 @ PHX 120 PHX W

2025-01-07 CHA 104 @ PHX 115 PHX W

2024-03-15 CHA 107 @ PHX 96 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score