If CHA visited NOP today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.3 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

-9.4

106.7

Offensive Rating

109.7

115.7

Defensive Rating

119.1

98.2

Pace

99.8

CHA (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

CHA wins

2026-02-02 CHA 95 @ NOP 102 NOP W

2025-11-04 CHA 112 @ NOP 116 NOP W

2025-03-30 CHA 94 @ NOP 98 NOP W

2025-01-25 CHA 92 @ NOP 123 NOP W

2024-01-17 CHA 112 @ NOP 132 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score