If CHA visited MIL today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.5 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

2.4

106.7

Offensive Rating

115.1

115.7

Defensive Rating

112.7

98.2

Pace

99.9

CHA (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

CHA wins

2026-01-02 CHA 121 @ MIL 122 MIL W

2025-12-29 CHA 123 @ MIL 113 CHA W

2025-11-14 CHA 134 @ MIL 147 MIL W

2025-11-12 CHA 100 @ MIL 111 MIL W

2025-02-05 CHA 112 @ MIL 102 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score